How It May Affect Your Life Big Time

Before and After The Fiscal Cliff tells you how the Fiscal Cliff  started and how it can affect your life for Better or Worse. No body will escape it. What happens in USA will change life around the world sooner or later.  

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Fiscal Cliff talks Move Forward

Movement seen in 'fiscal cliff' talks

December 17, 2012 RSS Feed Print

By ANDREW TAYLOR and JIM KUHNHENN, Associated Press
WASHINGTON (AP) — The White House and congressional Republicans are a long way from agreeing on a plan to deal with the "fiscal cliff." But it seems like some progress is being made.
House Speaker John Boehner is offering $1 trillion in higher tax revenue over 10 years and an increase in the top tax rate on people making more than $1 million a year. He's also offering a large enough extension in the government's borrowing cap to fund the government for one year before the issue must be revisited — conditioned on President Barack Obama agreeing to the $1 trillion in cuts.
The offer, made Friday after a long impasse between Boehner, R-Ohio, and Obama, calls for about $450 billion in revenue from increasing the top rate on million-dollar-plus income from 35 percent to the Clinton-era rate of 39.6 percent.
The additional revenue required to meet the $1 trillion target would be collected through a rewrite of the tax code next year and by slowing the inflation adjustments made to tax brackets.
In return, Boehner is asking for $1 trillion in spending cuts from government benefit programs like Medicare. Those cuts would defer most of a painful set of across-the-board spending cuts set to slash many domestic programs and the Pentagon budget by 8-9 percent, starting in January.
Boehner's proposal was described Sunday by officials familiar with it. They required anonymity because of the sensitivity of the talks.
Boehner also continues to press for a less generous inflation adjustment for Social Security benefits, a move endorsed by many budget hawks. Obama and Democrats on last year's deficit "supercommittee" endorsed the idea in offers made last year, but they're more reluctant now.
The new inflation adjustment would also raise about $70 billion over a decade in new revenues because tax brackets would rise more slowly for inflation, driving people more quickly into higher tax brackets.
The increased optimism come as time is running out before the adjournment of Congress. Tax rates on all workers go up in January, and $109 billion worth of across-the-board spending cuts begin to take effect then as well. Taken together with the expiration of extended jobless benefits and a 2-percentage-point break in Social Security payroll taxes, the combination of austerity steps threatens to send the economy back into recession.
The burst of optimism is tempered by the caution that the remaining steps to reaching a deal — particularly how much to cut Medicare and whether to impose the new, less generous inflation adjustment to Social Security — are difficult. Then comes the job of selling it to a polarized Congress, where GOP conservatives have been railing against higher tax rates for months as sure to cost jobs and hurt small business, and Democrats have taken a harder line against cost curbs to Medicare.
But it appears clear there is momentum as White House and congressional aides worked through the weekend.
The movement comes as an increasing number of Republicans have called for a tactical retreat that would hand Obama a victory on his longstanding campaign promise to raise taxes on households making more than $250,000 a year. That increase, combined with an increase in the tax rate on investment income from 15 percent to 20 percent, would raise about $800 billion in tax revenue over a decade.
In that context, Boehner's move could be seen as an attempt to get spending cuts linked to the rate increase rather than giving them up and getting nothing in return. Judging from the numbers, Boehner is also willing to allow tax rates on investment income to increase for high-end income and allow the reinstatement of curbs on the value of exemptions and itemized deductions for high-income earners.
Still, the Boehner offer is sure to cause unrest among many conservative Republicans dead set against raising tax rates at all.
Obama has offered $600 billion in spending cuts over a decade, including $350 billion from federal health care programs and $250 billion from other cuts to domestic programs like farm subsidies and the pension program for federal workers, and through sales of used federal property.

Fed Heads Print More Money

 This is taken from Kitco.com  Daily Pfennig
By Chuck Butler
President
EverBank World Markets
"So. why did the overnight markets take Gold lower?  Well, it appears that its becoming less likely with every day that passes by that we'll have an agreement on how to avoid the Fiscal Cliff, and while in my mind, I think this would be cause to rush to Gold, because of the uncertainty of what will happen should the lawmakers push us over the cliff. But Nooooooooo! The markets have a different view of this, and believe that going over the Fiscal Cliff will put us in the time machine back to 2008. And in 2008, Gold was not bought but sold, as investors took profits and bailed to dollars and Treasuries. And don't act like this is the first time you've heard this. I've been warning you about this going over the Fiscal Cliff for some time now.
I still don't believe the lawmakers have the chutzpah to allow the economy to be subjected to the removal of the Bush tax cuts, and deficit spending cuts at the same time. I read somewhere, and I wish I could find it again, that there are quite a few unemployed Americans  (2.1 million) that will have their unemployment benefits end on 12/31, should we go over the Fiscal Cliff.  I would think that alone would be enough to spur lawmakers into kicking the can down the road.
Personally. I'm all for spending cuts. I'm not for increased taxes. I don't like taxes period. And I can't believe people that get all lathered up about a new cigarette tax or gasoline tax, it doesn't matter what it is you're taxing, it's still a TAX!  I would settle for a flat tax. that's it, no more, no less. But that's not going to happen in my lifetime, not as long as the promises made to people are kept, and the need for more revenue at the Gov't level is required.
OK. I'll get down from my soapbox now. I have no idea why I went into that tax thing, but there! I did it! And I can expect ½ of the readers to disagree with me. but that's OK, as long as you cuss me out while reading the letter, and not fire off a nasty email to me. Hey! It's just my opinion!
Alrighty then. enough on the Fiscal Cliff, and what it's done to the price of Gold this morning. Right now, the currencies are drifting lower, but not taking a ride on the slippery slope while I write this morning.  I think that should we be pushed over the Fiscal Cliff that the currencies will take a ride on the slippery slope, and a bias to buy dollars will be quite strong. But only until investors and traders realize that the fundamentals of the U.S. are not worthy of a stronger dollar.  How long that will take, I have no idea, just taking a ride in the time machine and see how things went in 2008.
Well. The FOMC meeting did yield an announcement of Treasury bond buying by the Fed to the tune of $45 Billion per month.  And. they announced that the Fed Heads are going to tie unemployment and inflation to interest rates.  That's right, they said that as long as unemployment is above 6.5%, and inflation is below 2.5%, interest rates will remain near zero. They also projected that it would be 2015 before they see a major firming of interest rates.
Now. what does this tell you about what the Fed Heads feel about the U.S. economy?  The Fed is buying so many bonds, Treasuries and mortgage backed, and keeping rates unchanged for a reason folks. and that is they believe this is what will spark the economy.  I say hogwash!  Has it worked before, I mean we've been on this path of buying bonds now for almost 4 years. I suppose it has helped some to keep interest rates this low. Housing has shown signs of recovery, but I doubt Housing will be the game changer in 2013, like many think.
So, if the Fed Heads believe that the unemployment problem in the U.S. is going to remain a problem until 2015, why then are people buying dollars?  Stranger than fiction, folks. I read a story that quoted an economist you believes the Fed is doing what they can to avoid making the mistakes of Japan.  Hmmm. I'll need for you to show me how they are taking steps to avoid those mistakes, because from my view in the cheap seats, we've made the same mistakes, inch-by-inch, step-by-step..
It's also been nearly 4 years since the benchmark interest rate was lowered to near zero by Big Ben Bernanke. That's over 31 FOMC meetings if you're keeping score at home!  I have to tell you that right now, the markets are hailing Big Ben's willingness to experiment with things in an attempt to spark the economy. But isn't it ironic that back in 2000, when Big Ben was a professor at Princeton, he wrote a paper on Japanese Monetary Policy. And in it he criticized the Japanese willingness to experiment to try anything that isn't absolutely guaranteed to work."   Oh, and today is Big Ben's Birthday!
Let's list the things that have been done to spark the economy. no wait, let's not! It would be too darn long, and depressing!  But more than $2 Trillion in emergency loans, tripled the size of the Fed's balance sheet, and three rounds of Quantitative Easing, top that list of things.
OK. now what makes the Fed Heads believe that unemployment is going to gradually get better by 2015?  I would think that unemployment would go the other way, given the debt in the U.S. and the plans for continued budget deficits for the next decade. I mean Spain and Greece have 25% unemployment rates because of their debt, and how the markets made them stop adding to it. Why can't that happen here?  Now, I'm not saying we'll eventually have 25% unemployment here in the U.S. but why not higher than the questionable 7.7% right now?   In fact, if you really counted unemployment the way we used to in this country, and like John Williams at Shadowstats.com does, we would already be at 23%..
Well, aren't I just a bundle of happy thoughts this morning! NOT!  It's not easy being me! Mr. I want to be happy, but have to write about this stuff because not many people do. And while I'm at all this "happy news". we're only $68 Billion from hitting the debt limit ceiling.  I know I make a big deal out of this debt ceiling, while the it flies under the markets' radar right now. But what will be done here?  And. just for the record, we printed a $172 Billion Budget Deficit in November. Annualized that's over $2 Trillion!"
 

The Three Key Risks of Foreign Debt

The Three Keys Risks of Foreign Debt
Posted By Steve Gunn On November 30, 2012 (4:09 pm) In 2012 Archive, Bonds, Dividend ETFs, featured, International Dividends,Market Analysis

As recently reported by The Financial Times, Franklin Templeton increased its holdings of Irish bonds by “more than a third to at least 8.4 billion [euros] in the third quarter.”

It’s a considerable move, as Franklin Templeton now controls more than 10% of Ireland’s government bond market, “snapped up by funds controlled by Michael Hasenstab, co-director of Franklin Templeton’s international bond department, and particularly by the $64 billion Templeton Global Bond Fund (TPINX) he manages.”

So far this year, the purchase has proven profitable. Irish bonds have rallied, causing yields on the 20-year government bond to drop from 8.4% to around 4.6%. This has provided significant capital gains for existing holders of Irish debt.

While the profitable trades in Irish bonds have helped Mr. Hasenstab’s fund gain more than 12% year-to-date, one might questionany move taking a dominant position in the region, given its history of volatility.

But according to Hasenstab, Ireland’s on the right track toward fixing many of its challenges and may even be a “model for other countries” to follow.

If Hasenstab’s optimism piques your interest in owning Irish debt – or if you’re considering foreign debt in general – here are three key considerations to take into account before jumping on board…

Foreign Debt Key Risk #1 – Default

ConsiderGreece. If you owned Greek debt before the country went into crisis, and didn’t liquidate your position in time, you would’ve been badly hurt, to say the least.

When a big money manager like Franklin Templeton takes a risk – and the investment in Irish debt is a big one in my opinion – they have certain advantages that we don’t. Not the least of which is knowledge.

If a country’s debt needs to be sold in short order, the fund managers will likely know well before individual investors ever catch wind of it.

And remember, all that financial aid coming fromGermanyand elsewhere is an attempt to avoid a Greek default. Hardly a bullish sign. And if a bond issuer defaults, you might lose your interest payment or some of your entire principal.

Foreign Debt Key Risk #2 – Interest Rates

If interest rates rise, bond prices fall.

It’s a basic correlation and because of it, I’ve always advised clients to buy individual bonds having a commitment to holding the bonds until they mature.

That way, even if interest rates rise, the investor is mentally prepared – and financially satisfied – to receive the income periodically, while waiting for the return of principal.

I’ve seen too many investors buy bonds thinking they could sell them whenever they wanted, only to learn the hard way about the inverse relationship between bond prices and interest rates.

Foreign Debt Key #3 – Currency

Along with foreign debt investment comes the conversion from the currency of the issuing country to the currency of the investor’s country.

This conversion can have a great impact on the net result of the investment. Whether or not your native currency is strong or weak relative to the currency in which the investment is made, can radically alter the outcome.

Not understanding how currencies interact can provide surprising and sometimes disastrous results.

Luckily, there’s a great way to go about investing in foreign debt while substantially minimizing most of all three of these complicating factors…

Mitigate and Simplify These Risks Through ETFs

For most individual investors, individual bonds – especially those in the riskier categories – should be owned through mutual funds or ETFs. Spreading out the risks in this way minimizes the impact, if a bond issuer ends up defaulting on its debt obligation

If you’re specifically looking to gain exposure to Irish bonds, I would suggest a mutual fund or ETF. And given Franklin Templeton’s aggressive acquisition of Irish debt, Hasenstab’s is probably the best place to start.

Although Morningstar gave it a solid rating of four out of five stars, note that it does carry a 4.25% front-end sales charge – a fee I like to avoid, when possible.

On a broader scale, options are slim, unfortunately.

As of today, I have uncovered no ETFs that have a meaningful amount of exposure to Irish bonds – but will let you know if and when I do.

Bonds aside, Franklin Templeton’s confidence in Irish debt is also compelling me to take a closer look at Irish stocks.

On the equity side there is one Ireland dedicated ETF, the MSCI Ireland Capped Investable Market Index Fund (EIRL).

It’s been around for about two and a half years, but it’s been averaging only 8,000 shares traded per day for the past 90-day period. And although I prefer more liquidity, in the ETF space this fund, yielding of 2.16%, is basically it as far as being exclusive to Ireland.

Bottom line: I take Templeton’s move to become dominant in the Irish government bond market, at the very least, as an indication that we should all be paying more attention to Ireland.

But the verdict’s still not in. I’m undecided as it stands and not advocating wide exposure to Ireland just yet. Stay tuned as I uncover more info.

Safe investing,

Steve Gunn

Article taken from Dividends and Income Daily - http://www.dividendsandincomedaily.com
URL to article: http://www.dividendsandincomedaily.com/2012/11/30/the-three-keys-risks-of-foreign-debt/

Fiscal Cliff Gives Oracle CEO $198 Million

PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) — Oracle Corp. will pay three of next year's quarterly dividends this year in an apparent attempt to avoid possible tax hikes for its investors.

The software company said Monday that it will pay dividends for the second, third and fourth quarters of 2013, totaling 18 cents per share, on Dec. 21 to shareholders of record as of Dec. 14.

Oracle is the latest of a string of companies that have moved up quarterly payouts or issued

Important Qestions to Answer

*Are we Headed for another Great Depression like 1929

*Will the stock market make a new low?

*Should you invest in gold and silver and when?

*Will the dollar be devalued so that your investments in bonds lose value ?

*Will real unemployment go to 25% in the next two year

*How can you make your investments in 401K go up whether the market is going up or down?

*How can we solve our Energy, Social Security and Medicare problems?

*(You will find answers to these questions in Conquer The Fiscal Cliff.

Conquer Fiscal Cliff

Failure of a bipartisan committee to agree on budgetary cuts two years ago  was the  starting point    for the fiscal cliff. Unless Congress acts soon, there will be $607 billion net of tax increase and spending cuts automatically. It will only  be the beginning of austerity  programs   in the USA—more tax increases and  large  reduction in expenses   will happen in the next 10 years. Real cause of the fiscal cliff is excessive spending by Washington . According   to  the Office of Management and Budget, since 2000, total  federal  spending  has  increased  by 62% faster  than  inflation. We had total  outlay of $2.30 Trillion in 2000 and we had approximately $3.7 trillion in 2010. We see that total spending increased by $1.4 trillion in 10 years.   Here are the facts.  We had a net national debt before the recession of $6 trillion and today it's        $16  trillion. Our debt   held outside the US  is   45 %   of    our       total  .     China    alone   has  loaned about  $1 trillion of the money. Over the next 4 years, that debt grows to $20 trillion in 2016! Ten years from now our interest bill alone will be  a trillion dollars a year.